Looking at the forecast today, it appears we have a cold front destined to stall across NJ by Tuesday night. Normally south winds precede a cold front followed by northwest winds behind the front. This makes migration more-or-less predictable, at least at a coarse geographical scale. All cold fronts aren’t created equal, though, and so in the case of the upcoming front, while winds should turn more northwesterly Tuesday into Wednesday, the winds to our north (over southern Ontario, New York, etc.) will remain southerly due to a strong low pressure system over Canada. Any birds that do migration on Tuesday night will most likely have originated from nearby (all of NJ and maybe southern NY). As that low moves eastward, though, a second front will enter the region during the weekend and bring northwest winds from southern Canada down through the Mid-Atlantic. We should expect, then, to see a more considerable flight into the region on Sunday and Monday mornings. With six days separating now and then there are a lot of unknowns… but for now (at least) it’s looking good for early next week!
Good Birding
David
4 responses to “The inequality of cold fronts”
Hi David,
Great site, if only we had un filtered doppler radar availiable in the UK to track migration! I just have to rely on my eyes and ears! Could you possibly put a link to my Visible Migration blog on your site, i have included a link to woodcreeper on my site. My blog covers Visible bird migration/bird migration near Halesowen in the West Midland’s/Worcestershire U.K
Many Thanks and good birding
Craig
@Craig – Done! Great website too. I’ll look into the UK radar… I remember something out there that suggested it could be used to monitor migration.
@Carolyn – Yeah- not so “cold”, is it!? Looks like it’s going to stall and waver back and forth (SE, NW) over the next two days- but we’re in the window for birds if the wind switches around to the NW over New York… we’ll see! I saw a kettle of Broad-winged Hawks head out from Mt Snow, Vermont this past weekend… and so it begins 🙂
So far it’s not much a “cold” front, but I still expect a few hawks will fly today. It’s still the early season for raptors, though, so I’m not expecting much.
Carolyn H.
Hi David,
I have heard that you are looking for older CPUs to use for a Night Birds Flight Call Recognition project. Depending on what the minimum specs are that you would require, I may have several that I can donate towards this project. A PC User Group I am associated with may also have members looking to clear out some of their old inventory!
Please let me know either way.
By the way, I tried using your site’s “Contact” form; but it appears to be broken.
Thanks.