Since I’m not sure when the electricity will go out, here’s the weekend outlook based on the upper-level wind and precipitation forecast.
Friday night 8pm: upper-level winds will be variable with some SE (5kts). SE wind will strengthen into Saturday morning as Irene approaches.
Saturday night 8pm: North winds across the Central and Mississippi flyways will trigger migration down the mid-section of the country, while light and variable winds over NY will allow some migration out of the northeast. By this point expect strong easterly winds from Irene to begin pummeling the east coast of NJ while southwesterly winds keep migrants grounded over coastal New England.
By 8am on Sunday expect the eye of Irene to be off Southern NJ and the counter clockwise winds from the storm to be affecting the state differently depending on the location. By this point too, any southerly flow over New England has turned northeasterly due to the influence of Irene although little to no migration is expected.
By Sunday night at 8pm the storm is over eastern NY and winds over NJ have turned northwest statewide. The migration highway will be open for the Central Flyway, Mississippi Flyway, and western half of the Eastern Flyway. Depending on the amount of precipitation, we could see nocturnal migrants being pushed to Cape May for Monday morning.
Right now Monday night is shaping up to be the best bet for a large nocturnal flight, with light northwest winds forecast for the northeastern US and mid-Atlantic, and north winds for the Central and Mississippi flyways.
A word about seawatching: I don’t claim to be an expert on sea watching conditions so I’ll keep this brief. In my conversations with several seasoned ‘hurricane birders’ I have concluded that (for Cape May, at least) a storm which tracks up the Delaware Bay tends to be better for birding than one which simply travels up the east coast. The main reason (as I understand it) is that birds trapped within the calmer eye of the storm are ‘deposited’ in the bay and/or inland waterways where they then become ultimately more ‘viewable’ than if they were just nearer to shore (and could quickly move back out to sea). In the case of Cape May, these bay-trapped birds must reorient to exit out the mouth of the bay and in doing so round Cape May Point. Right now it looks like Irene will pass to our east which is better for flooding but potentially worse for birding. The best east coast birding will probably by right as the storm is close to shore (strong ESE winds; very dangerous and not recommended) and just after it passes when birds may be leaving the Delaware Bay and/or the nearshore areas. So that’s my take- but I’d love to hear from anyone else with experience or theories on the subject… just make it quick, before the lights go out! 😉
Good luck to everyone preparing for the storm. Here’s to a safe ride and good birding once it’s safe to be out and about.
Cheers,
David